bizwzubi hasn't registered for Wass Gold yet - have you?
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: amongst many, Nebraska, USA
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Welcome back, class. I started writing this lesson with the intention of helping you “uncover” pocket cards. In essence, how to read a player and their actions to identify their cards. But, as I was writing, I realized I needed to cover some ground on two specific actions, betting and raising. So, Lesson three is all about betting and raising properly. This may seem like another basic, but I guarantee that most of you will find some very good information here.
If you find yourself mystified as to how you lose money, or can’t seem to make more money, at the poker tables, chances are your betting and the strategy behind it is letting you down. So many players make inadequate bets, overly risky bets, or can’t properly calculate a bet or call for the best return. Hopefully I will show you some of the good reasons why you were getting called, or mistakenly folding, the biggest ways players lose those cheques.
We will start by looking at the things that should impact your decision on placing or calling a bet.
The Cards – Obviously. Better cards, Better bets
Position – Later gets more information, early has to guess
Players – Likely to call? Raise? Fold? Know their style
Stack – Are you Dominant? Or likely to get pushed hard?
Timing – In a tourney, close to the money? This affects other players
Now that you have decided whether or not to make that bet, raise, or call, it is time toformulate the bet properly. For that we have to bring in the mysterious “Pot odds”. This is how any decent player should base their betting formula.
I call it mysterious because allot of players either don’t know about them or don’t know exactly what they are. Pot odds are, simply put, your odds of winning the hand in relation to the return on your bet.
You can relate it by percentages (33%) or fractions (1in 3, 3 to 1). A hand that has a 25% chance (1 in 4), can call 25% of the pot (4 to 1).
To help understand this I will use two players in a hand that has a current pot of $200.
Usually players associate this with underdogs calling, as in; a hand with a 25% chance of hitting/winning can call a $100 bet, now that the total pot will be $400. (One in four chance of hitting/winning gets 4 to 1 return on the bet).
This can be associated with your bet as the favorite as well; a hand with a 75% chance of winning should place a bet of at least $200. The 25% hand must call $200 to get a $600 pot (3 to 1 return on a one in four chance).
When you consider pot odds, you have to consider all of the possible actions of all of the possible players. To help understand this I will use four players in the same $200 pot situation.
As the favorite, you are 66% to win now. That means each underdog averages 11%, but the best could be 34%. So your bet has to give less than a 3 to 1 return on all possible callers. Your bet should be $300, making the possible callers pot $800 and his/her return less than 3 to 1.
In this same situation, if one of the other players is loose and makes the call, your true opposition is now calling $300 for an $1100 pot, giving him/her better than 3 to 1 return on their call. If you feel like you may get 2 callers you cannot overcome the pot-odds, as the 2[suP]nd[/suP] caller will keep the pot at 3 to 1 return. You now have to decide if there is a bet big enough to eliminate either or both of the other players.
As a 66% favorite, I would not push myself all-in, but if possible I would put one of my opponents all-in. If I am short stacked, I would opt for a bet that is at least pushing the 3 to 1 return odds, and at most half of my remaining stack leaving me options for re-raisers or the next bet.
Now that I have unveiled some of the mystery behind pot odds, here are some common rules of thumb you can use.
Later positions can play the pot odds more easily pre-flop due to the information they can gather. They know how many players are likely to be involved and estimate the possible pot much easier than earlier positions. Post-flop all positions should play the pot-odds.
Pot odds are best used when only two or three players will be involved in a pot. If 4 or more players are likely to get involved in a pot, you cannot overcome pot-odds; so base your bet on what will likely eliminate players. Likewise, with 4 or more players in a pot, even a 10% hand is likely getting pot odds worthy of a call.
Any bet that is less than the value of the pot (or likely pot) is not playing the odds. This can be interpreted as either a weak hand or a trapping hand, any follow up action should evaluated and respond appropriately. Not raising to the pot odds with a favorite is only allowing other players to essentially “limp” into the pot. Calling with pot odds in your favor is still the play to make when you “suspect” a trap, only fold if you are definite that it is a trap.
Moving all-in should be reserved for heads-up action, 90% or better favorites, or when your stack covers the opponents and you have a 75% or better favorite. Remember, I’m talking about the proper plays here, not bluffs.
Pot odds are no excuse for playing rag hands. Pot-odds are about betting and your hand, not your hand alone.
Playing to the river is only asking to be beat on the river. Any time you can finish the hand with a bet, you should. Remember that Aggression is the key trait of any successful poker player. My only exception to this rule is when you hold the stone cold nuts, which is not as often as you think.
You will have to learn some things on your own here, such as starting hand odds and draw odds. I know, homework sucks, but I can’t give you everything. There are plenty of websites out there that can give you that information, and I will post a chart that I use as soon as I can transfer in a sensible copy. I also use the same basic outs calculation as Jayc, post-flop outs x 4 = % of hitting, post turn outs x 2 = % of hitting, notice that I didn’t say winning.
As I stated at the beginning of this lesson, this should be the basis of your betting strategies. Just as you would do with your playing style, you will want to change things up from time to time, don’t become predictable. Never bet the exact same way each time, vary up the amounts, but utilize a strong base for forming your bets. And remember, odds are based on empirical data, at any single point in time the odds can be beaten.
Lesson Four should arrive soon, as it is already half written. We will discuss how to "uncover" your opponents cards then.
bizwzubi hasn't registered for Wass Gold yet - have you?
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: amongst many, Nebraska, USA
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OK, after three days of trying to import my chart, I give up. I tried gif, jpg, bmp, copy/paste, everything I can understand, but it just comes up garbled or not at all. So I am going to type in a basic version of some things that I use.
This first part is a chart I use to formulate my pre-flop bets. It utilizes an Expected Value chart I dug up on the web a few years ago (compiled by a Universty that transposed about 5 million hands from "donor" poker rooms). The chart is just some of the important pieces since the one I have is about 8 pages long and has a ton of data that isn't that important. There are more complete listings on the web, just google "EV" or "expected value" and you'll get all sorts of results. You can even get them from the main poker sites you use if you search their homepages.
A quick explanation of EV or Expected Value. EV is an analysis of poker hands that rates the expected return on a particular bet amount (usually the amount of the big blind as it is the minimum bet). Some sites provide the total EV (for all games and positions) some break the information down to positions, table size, bet size, etc. For my purpose, I use a total EV number. The EV number for each hand is how many times the bet amount you can expect to be returned over a length of time being played. Example, the AA has an EV of 2.4, if the bet (or bb) is 100, your return should be 240. This tool is used to judge the starting strength of hands, and if you have a particular sites EV you have an advantage because it only analyzes that sites RNG.
Like I said, my chart is more empirical, as it was compiled from several donor sites. So I use it as my main go to chart (actually, I don't use it that much anymore as I have allot of my pocket hands memorized by now).
Starting Total Hand Value HOWI FORMULATE MY BET AA 2.40 KK 1.73 QQ1.20 I use the following formula JJ.85 AKs .80 EV x BB x PI = Bet AQs .61 TT .59In the formula, EV is the EV of the hand
AK .50 from the chart on the left. BB is the amount AJs .45 of the Big Blind. And PI is the number of KQs .40 players expected to play in this hand (based 99 .38 on thetable's averageplay). ATs.33
AQ .31 As an example, if I have theAA, the big blind KJs .30 is 100, and typically four players see the flop, 88 .25 my formula looks like this... QJs .23 KTs .20 2.40 x 100 x 4 = 960 A9s .19
AJ .18 My pre-flop bet will be 960 (or an amount QTs.17 around there). You will notice that this follows
KQ .17 common thought that you should raise the BB 77 .16 5-10 times with an AA hand. JTs .15
Again, this helps to formulate a bet based on the strength of my hand. It is not a golden rule, as mixing up your bets isgood game play. But, it gives a good idea of what an appropriate bet should look like for the hand being played. There are 169 different starting hands, only 40 have a positive return, I listed 23 hands that have an EV of .15 or higher. The other 17 positive return hands are .10 or lower, and if you use the formula I use, on a ten handeded table, even with ten players the formula only totals a call (.10 x 10 = 1)
For a comparison, and to show the other common starting hand ideology, I am including the Sklansky Method hand groupings. You'll notice that almost every one of the 23 hands on the EV chart are in Sklansky's top four groups. If you haven't read anything on Sklansky method, I recommend it, as it provides great play advice for each of these groups, and much, much, more info.
SKLANSKY METHOD TOP HANDS BY GROUPING
THE SWEET 16 – What many refer to as the Premium Hands
GROUP 1 – AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs
GROUP 2 – TT, AQs, AJs, KQs, AK
GROUP 3 – 99, JTs, QJs, KJs, ATs, AQ
THE EXPERTS & PROFESSIONALS – A Maniacs Meat & Potatoes
Well, that's the info I'm willing to take the time to give you. I have lot's more on these and other pre-flop betting ideology, soif you have any questions, feel free to ask.
Hopefully, between this info on pre-flops, and the original lesson and pot-odds, you will be able to identify where your betting strategies have led you astray. Again, the information I gave was to assist in formulating appropriate bets for the hands you are playing, and is not meant to be the only way to play the hands. But if you used this info as your basis, and kept at it, you should find yourself taking in allot more pots, for better returns.
bizwzubi hasn't registered for Wass Gold yet - have you?
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: amongst many, Nebraska, USA
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As a final note for those of you who believe the Poker.com/River.com conspiracy theory, Poker.com does have a link to their EV data. You may want to check it out and see exactly what hands you should play with their RNG, and just how "askew" it really is.
bizwzubi hasn't registered for Wass Gold yet - have you?
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: amongst many, Nebraska, USA
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Here is a little more to help you see some post-flop strategy. Once again we are not talking about bluffs, just common, sensible play.
These are some common post-flop betting strategies, not necessarily by values, but by actions that give the best possible returns (true bad beats not included).
A value bet is small enough for any hand to call (usually the minimum), a fishing bet has enough value to push off draws yet remains foldable to a possible nut hand (usually about pot sized), pot-odds bets are meant to push off made hands that are drawing to catch or beat the top hand (usually twice the pot or larger). The check-raise is commonly used in place of a pot odds bet, especially with another aggressive better on the table (usually intended to stop the hand dead, or catch a weak hand protector/bluffer).
Straight/Royal Flush Flops
Pocketed – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Top End – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Low End – Bets pot odds for lower draws, evaluates raises chance at top end
Singled (Draw) – Checks, calls to pot odds, See Straight and Flush
Quad Flops
Pocketed – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Singled – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Draw – Go down to Trips
Full House Flops
Pocket Hi – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Mate Hi – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Pocket Lo – Check, value bet, evaluates raise for quads, other pockets or draw
Mate Lo – Bets to pot odds to push off draws to Hi, evaluates raise for Hi
Draw – Go down to Trips and Two Pair
Flush Flops
Nut – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Made – Bets to pot odds to push off draws to nut/hi, evaluates raise for nut/hi
Flush Draw
Nut – Checks or fishes a bet to see where hand stands
Pocketed – Checks or fishes a bet to see where hand stands
Singled – Checks/calls to value of rank
Straight Flops
Top – Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give
Fill – Bets to pot odds to push top or higher draws off
Bottom – Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws
Straight Draw
Open Ended – Checks/calls to pot odds, possibly fishes a bet
Gut Shot – Checks, calls if paired, evaluates otherwise
Trip/Set Flops
Pocketed – Value bets, evaluates raise/call for pot odds future actions
Top single – Bets pot odds to kicker value, evaluates re-raise for hand type
Low Single – Bets to push off all other hands, evaluates call/raise for hand type
Two Pair Flops
Top Pair – Fishes a bet to evaluate raise/call for pot odds future actions
Pocketed – Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws/lower
Lower Two – Bets to push off all other hands, evaluates call/raise for hand type
Top Pair Flops
Pocketed – Bets or check-raises to catch top pair and seek info on opposition
Plus Draw – Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws
Good Kicker – Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws
Pair Flops
Plus Draw – Checks/calls to pot odds or evaluates
Good Kicker – Checks/calls to pot odds or evaluates
Weak – Checks/calls small bets
Notice that I have again used top-down evaluation strategy. This will help keep you aware of the best possible hands instead of jumping in after misreading a low hand.
bizwzubi hasn't registered for Wass Gold yet - have you?
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: amongst many, Nebraska, USA
Posts: 1,654
Yeah, from my word file, powermax
everything here was written by me, I only use my experience and information gathered over many years of play.
And thank you, a question like that tells me you think this information has some validity, or may have been written by someone else with credentials. In a sort of backhanded way I take that as a compliment.
bizwzubi hasn't registered for Wass Gold yet - have you?
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: amongst many, Nebraska, USA
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Nope, you got it right, you would bet 60, but since the bet is already 100, you probably just want to flat call. Of, course you can always fold if you like, but it is still a positive return hand, so this is good for a limp-in. And, again, remember this is base-line stuff, not meant to be followed to the letter, you still have to mix things up to keep from becoming predictable.
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