What do you think? Any advice?

I won the hand, and I think I played ok, but still want to read another points of view:

AKo vs QQ - Poker Hand Replays

looks fine to me, you're rarely crushed on that flop and have plenty of outs vs TT-QQ

i like the betsize on the flop too and can't really see myself folding when he CRAI

Originally Posted by bluelips imo

looks fine to me, you're rarely crushed on that flop and have plenty of outs vs TT-QQ

i like the betsize on the flop too and can't really see myself folding when he CRAI

Yes, after posting that I analyzed the hand with PokerStove against the range that I think he could make that move postflop: TT+ and I had an equity of almost 56% there.

[bizwzubi]

OK, I assume you want an argumentative response, otherwise, why post?

Pre-flop, plays all good.

He checks the flop, you bet 10, he pushes all-in.

You've got a pot that had 13.50 in it at the flop, you put another 10.25 in on your bet, and then he pushes back to get your last 50.

So your laying 50 to get 74 basically. Ideally, you want to be about 65% to win if your playing straight on the odds.

No problem with the read here, pretty obvious and spot on to read the decent PP. So now you know he's ahead at the moment and you have to figure out your chances of getting past on him.

Nice to have the Nut flush card in hand, so you've got up to 9 possible outs there, and it also gives you 3 ducks for the wheel. Playing him for QQ or less means you have 2 kings and 3 aces for overs, which gives you 17 outs. That puts you right in that 65% range to catch him out.

No flaws there.

If I'm gonna contradict you, the only way I can is to say you might want to account for a couple other possible represented hands.

AA, KK. Both of which all but kill the overs and drop your odds to 55-60%, if he robs you of the K hearts or the Aces.

33, 44, 55. Possible in a SB reraise against a single raiser. These keep you at 9 outs to the flush and 3 ducks to the wheel, however it kills your over cards. Your at about 50% against these.

Lastly, calculating what he actually had, a good PP with one of the flush cards, and for arguments sake, let's make it the 66 with a heart. You're at 6 outs to the flush (2 and 8 are dead to the straight flush), the ducks are dead, and you still got the 5 over outs. About 45% to catch him out.

I'm not gonna include hands like 67 or 78 hearts, even the KQ hearts, etc. Unless you had him identified as a fairly aggressive player, these hands are out with the way the betting progressed with average play (but if you included them, you can see it has you dead, or down 2 flush outs if you want to calculate them).

So, if I was gonna say there was a flaw, it would be that you were catching him (but you realized that) and MIGHT not have had the pot odds to call. You were anywhere from 45 to 65% after the flop, and a small possibility of drawing dead to an overtly aggressive player. However, even at coinflip odds of catching out, it wasn't that big of a stretch to go.

So, well played. You had a good read and made a good pot-odds call. Only flaw may have been reading it optimistically, but you have too (within reason, of course).

Ideally, you want to be about 65% to win if your playing straight on the odds.

i dunno where you got this figure from, but im pretty sure you don't need as high as 65% equity to call his crai

AA and KK are less likely cause of the card removal effect, and most players at 50nl don't 3bet 33-55 iirc.

[bizwzubi]

You're laying 50 to get 75. That's 3 return for every 2 bet, or 3 to 2 odds. Ideally, you want a 2 out of 3 chance to win, or about 65%.

If you take a 3 for 2 bet, 100 times (200 total bet), you have to win 66.6% of the time (199.99999999) to break even, so you want about 65% shot in winning (or better).

When you drift down to 50% chance of winning on a 3 for 2 bet, you're going to lose in the end, since you will bet 200 in 100 chances and win only 150.

As for the card removal effect, yes, it is less likely that either the AA or KK are out there, but with absolutely noone else even sniffing the hand, I'd still be looking out for them. Much different story if someone else had thought about joining the hand, then I'm weary I've lost an Ace or King to that hand.

And finally, the 3 to 1 re-raise from the sb is beautiful against a single opponent while holding any PP. You're producing big implied odds, so most meager raising hands will want to fold right there. If not, you've achieved a huge read without pushing all-in and avoided showing that you have a weaker pair by just calling. But this one is more about playing style and comfort.

I was waiting this kind of answer, Thank you!

about:

Originally Posted by bizwzubi

You're laying 50 to get 75. That's 3 return for every 2 bet, or 3 to 2 odds. Ideally, you want a 2 out of 3 chance to win, or about 65%.

If you take a 3 for 2 bet, 100 times (200 total bet), you have to win 66.6% of the time (199.99999999) to break even, so you want about 65% shot in winning (or better).

When you drift down to 50% chance of winning on a 3 for 2 bet, you're going to lose in the end, since you will bet 200 in 100 chances and win only 150.

I think there are a mistake in the calculation above.
You have two options here:
a) FOLD, and pretty obvious you was losing: $6.50 preflop + $10.25 postflop = $16.75 (or losing 33.5 BB)
b) CALL
Lets say you call with 40% of equity. The pot is $133.7, so in the long run you will win only about $53.48 (40%) for every hand like that, but you put in every pot: $66.6
so you will losing about $13.12

I think the equity needed to make the call is just close to 35%.
Maths:
I need to put $49.85 to win $133.7 -> 49.85/133.7 = 0.37 -> 37%

And this is because this part:
"If you take a 3 for 2 bet, 100 times (200 total bet), you have to win 66.6% of the time (199.99999999) to break even, so you want about 65% shot in winning (or better)."

I'm not losing 2 and winning 3, I'm losing 2, but winning 5 (using the numbers in your example). I'm taking a 5 for 2 bet.

Cheers, and thanks again!

since that was such a huge flop for you, when he checked to me i would have checked it right back and took the free card... a player raising out of the blinds like that you have to assume a big hand. I would be smitten at the opportunity for a free look at the turn... granted if you played the hand my way, u prob dont take his stack, but i still see him firing a barrel on the turn to see where he's at.... real easy for players at this limit to become married to a hand like queens. he also has the queen of hearts and might have been in a spot where he would gamble with you.

Originally Posted by unworncoma

since that was such a huge flop for you, when he checked to me i would have checked it right back and took the free card... a player raising out of the blinds like that you have to assume a big hand. I would be smitten at the opportunity for a free look at the turn... granted if you played the hand my way, u prob dont take his stack, but i still see him firing a barrel on the turn to see where he's at.... real easy for players at this limit to become married to a hand like queens. he also has the queen of hearts and might have been in a spot where he would gamble with you.

Thanks for your answer.
Yeah, I think about that (free card) but as you said if I don't bet the flop I didn't take his stack. I take the risk based in my outs and FE.
Thanks again!

[classiccola]

Interesting hand! Even more so after he flop. I guess you could put him on queens kings or aces there from his big raise. So it was very unlikly he hit a straight. I think it was a ok call if you want to gamble and see if you hit the flush or if you put him on queens hit the over card like you did. I think it was a gutsy call think most players probably would have made it.