Luck in poker

[rekinul]

When you mention luck in poker, most people think about the miracle flop or miracle river. The luck I want to discuss is more situational luck, like getting KK in the BB. Many of our forum events are played pretty tight as most of us know each other fairly well. In any tourney, you have to steal the occasional pot to survive as the cards don't always come when needed. How many times have you played tight and folded hand after hand and watch your stack dwindle? For most of us the answer to that is fairly often. As this is happening, you know you're going to have to represent a hand soon to stay alive. Now if your the lucky sort, the aces will arrive in the nick of time to save you. If you're like me, you just have to pick a spot and play like you have aces.

The type of luck I want to mention is the type that allows you to represent that hand and not run into a real one. Our dear friend Grumbledook is a very aggressive player and his first instinct is to attack the pot. There are times he puts that big bet in and I'm certain he's got crap but when I look down I'll have a powerhouse like 8-3 offsuit. He steals the pot (sure he could have had aces) and play goes on. My luck is such that I'll pick my spot, right position, tight image, and I'll generally walk my represented hand right into a big pocket pair. This is the kind of bad luck that generally knocks me out of tourneys and it's just another way random chance affects our success. Think about it for a second, put 10 equally skilled people at a table and who will generally win - the luckiest. __________________
I'd rather be lucky than good. Damn shame I'm neither one...

[bigstu2]

very nice post m8 i really relate to quite a lot if not all of what you are saying nice 1

[arjonius]

rekinul wrote:

Think about it for a second, put 10 equally skilled people at a table and who will generally win - the luckiest. __________________

The stated condition of equally skilled players isonly something that happens in theory. Sure, in practice, sufficient luck can and will overcomegreater skill in the short term. However,over the long run,skill will triumph more often than luck.

[bls12]

i think poker is a game of luck and skill mix both together and you have a good formular myself skill will always overcome luck i am still learning the game but have had some luck and had some bad luck as well. so skill get's it in my eyes if you are lucky good but if not play the game how you see fit to play it some times you hit sometimes you don't that's poker for ya..............

I think it's 50/50 between luck and skill. I've been getting much better results in the tourneys lately and I haven't caught any more lucky cards or had better hole cards so my skill level must have increased.

Is there any better time to get a power hand than in BB? Personally I love them in BB.

Spytty

more skill than luck..for sure....thats why we see the same guys at final tables on wass,t.v tourneys and such,but luck does have a very important part to play...good and bad we cant live without it...in every type of sport or competitve game(loathe to call poker a sport..lol)luck will be required at some stage.i.e..maradona's hand of god in the world cup,tiger woods chipping in at 16 at augusta...all good luck but skill needed to get them there to where they can then benefit from good luck...

keep on wassing...

[afc1903]

stella123 wrote:

more skill than luck..for sure....thats why we see the same guys at final tables on wass,t.v tourneys and such,but luck does have a very important part to play...good and bad we cant live without it...in every type of sport or competitve game(loathe to call poker a sport..lol)luck will be required at some stage.i.e..maradona's hand of god in the world cup,tiger woods chipping in at 16 at augusta...all good luck but skill needed to get them there to where they can then benefit from good luck...

keep on wassing...

yes but how many times did you see those guys get through on luck, I have watched players (ones who consistantly place) hit lucky with marginal hands and beat the the guy you never see on the final table who had premium cards and made the right moves, I agree with the first post on the whole, what I mean isskill will take you through a tourney but without luck you wont.

I'm not talking about lucky rivers or flopping flushes, I mean being in the pot at the right time, whether its a steal you can make or a hand that holds up, most of the time skill will help you determine these situations, but luck will allow you to be in the situationat the time, you've heard of the pros that can psychologicly take down a pot, they are only able to do this cause there opponant hasnt picked up a hand strong enough to go after them with, tight players can only win with luck when there big hand holds up, or when they're lucky enough that someone else didnt hit.

Some people have a very good read on situations, they knowwhen a fishy player hasnt hit his marginal cards that he always plays or Mr tight hasnt hit with the AK, or is playing a big pair, and they will always do well, but in No Limit Poker, they will still need luck to win.

Finnaly the point about representing a hand, of course again you will need to have luck, that your opponant hasnt got a hand that they wont be willing to lay down, but most importantly here you will need to have a good read on your opponant, and 9times out of...whatever , you will NEED TO KNOW that they'll fold, maybe it is unlucky when they decide not to and there ace high beets your K or the pocket 6s they seemd determined not fold against a board of monster cards hold up.

Don't get me wrong I know you will not go far in poker without skill, atleast not in the long run, in the long run the luck will fly around and eventually share itself out, the winners will be skillfull ones who knew when to hold em and know when to fold em, just remember your skill will loose when the other gets lucky.

excellent post mate, enjoyed it very much. have a few thoughts of my own about luck, i wouldn't know the way every 1 plays cause i haven't played with u all yet, but i feel luck is a major factor in poker, especially when you don't get a hand all night and have to go all in with a minor suited connectors, whichi fellr goodcardsbut not as great asKK or AK, so when u go all in with cards like that luck does come into it.

[Cille]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm ...................... if luck has anything to do with winning in poker I have no luck.

I win when I dont play with wassers, maybe its because I have a tendensy to get sceard of all the great players...... think I need to tuffen up.

Getting tired of folding before flop............. and when the darn flop comes I eighter see that I have folded straight or fullhouse. In last nights 1vip I did that 3 times......... and boy did that suck........lmao.

I think poker has some skill and some luck in it......... so from my point of view I am lakking the luck (lmao).................. and some chicken playing from my part lol

Cillepus :?

[mackemman]

I totally agree with you rekinul. I think luck (at on-line poker) plays a big part. I include myself as there are times when I can call on absolutely nothing (usually with top chip stack) and flop, turn or river the nuts.

Most times however I am in your situation as I was last night on noble $5 buy in tourney. Never picked one single hand up going into add-on time, I picked up QJ off suit (which normally I would only call with) and went all in only to be beaten (fairly and rightly so) by AJ (Jack came out so he out kicked me).

Of course you can say it was bad play by me (I think so too), But I had least chips and needed a steal and perhaps become bored with the whole event.

I KNOW I am the unluckiest poker player ever because I win rarely and I am the best LOL.

Seriously though, good post mate. Thought enducing........

MackemMan